IMMC Modeling Challenge

Around March 2019, myself and three other students entered into the International Mathematical Modeling Challenge, where we were given the task to calculate the "carrying capacity" of the Earth, both assuming current conditions and with future projections.

By the end of the five-day period, we were able to produce a written report detailing our research, assumptions, and findings. Through this competition, our team was listed as one of the 22 National Finalists in Australia. Below is the summary page of our report, as well as the entire report in PDF format.

Summary

If humans were to continue to consume resources at our present rate, it is inevitable that one day we will deplete the environment we rely on. Because of this, it is vital for our species to gain insight into a reliable prediction of the maximum carrying capacity, either then to adjust our present consumption rate, or search for more sustainable way of living before hitting the predicted number. The carrying capacity of a biological species in an environment is the maximum population size of the species that the environment can sustain indefinitely, given the food, habitat, water, and other necessities available in the environment.

The goal of the model was to project a carrying capacity as reliably as possible, given limited information and time. The factors that influence the carrying capacity are incredibly broad and are usually closely interlinked. By taking into account 3 major factors, that is the amount of land, water, and energy resources remaining in the current state, we were able to produce a model that predicts the figure fairly accurately without the over complication for such a big question on the fate of humanity.

Our initial model (Question 2) is based entirely on current figures. To make this model as specific and accurate as possible, our model takes into account of the average amount resources per person required per year, as well as the available renewable resources in each of the three factors. This is achieved separately for each of the three limiting factors and the minimum of the three population size is taken as the carrying capacity.

To project our prediction into the future (Question 3), the amount of renewable resources available to us is expanded on through reasonable assumptions based on research. In this model, the major factors build on each other to find the maximum population. In addition to expanding available resources, the resources required per person was also optimised whilst still ensuring sustainability. Like question 2, the minimum prediction population size from the 3 major factors was taken to be the carrying capacity.

IMMC report.pdf

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